PaddockSpy-Grand Prix Blog

Portugal, Switzerland and Ireland.

The A1GP title has always gone to a European nation and there are plenty of people who now believe the 2008/09 title race is down to just those three teams.

And, they are making a strong argument. After ten races so far this season, the leading trio of teams are separated by just nine points. Between them, the trio account for seven out of the ten wins available, and have finished in the top ten a combined total of 26 times from a possible 30.

Even Ireland’s Adam Carroll and Switzerland’s Neel Jani are confident you don’t have to look any further than those three to find the eventual 2008/09 champion, with those teams performing consistently well, no matter what track.

“I think it will be between the three of us for sure,” Jani told A1GP.com. “We are now back at the top of the standings and we have to aim to win it. We got a present from Ireland in Gauteng but I am sure they will bounce back even harder next time. And you can’t forget Portugal, they are always up there too. But that’s it.”

The Netherlands is the team next up in fourth place, 17 points behind, but this increases to 20 when taking into account the new-for-2008/09 dropped scores rule. This season, teams must drop their worst complete event score, and the Dutch has the highest ‘worst’ score to drop.

“I agree with Neel,” Carroll confirmed. “It’s pretty tight between us at the top and all three teams are doing a good job, our guys are working really hard, we just need to make sure the car is good enough from now on.

“Retiring in Guateng was disappointing for the guys and the team. But that is racing - the lows are low and the highs are high.”

The bookies also agree. One leading online book maker is quoting long odds for anyone but the top three - 11/10 for Switzerland, 6/4 for Ireland with 5/1 for Portugal to be crowned eventual winner. The Netherlands is a long outsider at 14/1, and is the only other team actually given a price.

A1GP.com points analysis

A look at the points situation makes for interesting reading:

The current official standings

The picture of the title race is even closer when looking at an adjusted table, taking into account ‘dropped scores.’ The rules this season mean that a team’s worst score is discounted after the final round. As things stands, no team has more than six points to drop, while some teams don’t have anything to drop.

Because Ireland and Portugal both had disastrous rounds at Zandvoort, each failing to score, they have nothing to drop from their current totals at the end of the season. All the teams around them have points to drop, so the table including dropped scores is as follows:

It makes for an even tighter battle at the top, with just six points separating the top three, adding leverage to the top three’s claims that the title fight is now just between them.

If Switzerland score less than four points in one of the remaining rounds this season then it would effect how many points they have to drop - but such an occurrence would have devastating effects on its title chances anyway, because it would have scored badly in a round where it needed to keep up the title pressure.

However, with 27 points available at every meeting, there is plenty of time for a team to make its mark from deeper in the pack…

source: www.a1gp.com